Crash Bang Wallace
Libertarian political blog from Mark Wallace; political opinion, breaking news and exclusivesFinally the Barnett Formula comes in handy – for allocating Scotland’s national debt
markwallace | 51 Comments » Posted on January 25, 2012A lot of thought’s being put into the practical implications of Scottish independence – I suspect that if the country doesn’t become independent this time (which more English voters support than Scottish voters), it probably will in the next decade or two.
It’s the practical ramifications which are increasingly causing Alex Salmond touble. The problem being that the SNP likes to have its cake and eat it, too. Take fiscal devolution – when the TaxPayers’ Alliance proposed full fiscal devolution to the Scottish Parliament (an SNP manifesto policy), SNP spokesmen blew their lid because the report also called for an end to English Barnett Formula subsidies for Scotland.
So it has been with Alex Salmond’s plan for full independence – he wants to take as many powers and assets as possible, but leave the nation’s debts squarely on the shoulders of English taxpayers.
For example, he thinks that North Sea oil and gas should be allocated geographically (giving the Scots over 80% of the revenue) but national debt should be allocated on a per capita basis only (giving the Scots just over 8% of the total bill). This is particularly relevant when you start to consider where the debt and liability for RBS would fall in you took a geographical approach to where debt should be allocated.
Happily, someone on the Government E-petitions site has come up with an elegant solution. When we calculate the share of the national debt to be allocated to an independent Scotland, why not use the Barnett Formula?
Yes, is means each Scottish person would have 22% more debt than each English person, but if it’s fair for dishing the cash out then surely it’s fair for sharing the burden of our debts, too?
I’ve signed the e-petition here – I hope you will, too.
The benefits cap debate – a win for Ministers, and an economic fail for critics
markwallace | 14 Comments » Posted on January 23, 2012The furore over Iain Duncan Smith’s proposed benefits cap was predictable, and Ministers have merrily sailed into it for two reasons – because a high profile fight on this topic brings them an electoral advantage, and because they knew the Left would swallow the bait in one great, unthinking gulp.
The idea that no household should get more than £26,000 in benefits – equivalent to a pre-tax salary of £35,000 – is overwhelmingly popular. British voters subscribe to a strong idea of fairness, particularly when it comes to the idea that working should be more rewarding than not working, and they have been outraged by numerous reports of large families living at no cost to themselves in huge, overpriced houses in particular.
The critique of the proposals coming from the Left, notably from Lib Dem Guardianista Tim Leunig, is fatally flawed because socialist economics fails to recognise that the economy is dynamic. You can’t change one input to the system without others shifting in response – both when macro market forces and micro human behaviour are involved.
The flaw comes when they crunch the numbers. Leunig’s Guardian piece claims to calculate that the benefits cap would leave people living on 62p a day. The most crucial element of his workings is that a 4-bedroom house in Tolworth costs £400 a week. That’s true right now, but it wouldn’t be the case once a cap has been brought in.
The truth is that some of the main beneficiaries of overly high benefits are private landlords. They may not get payments from the DWP direct, but they reap the cash anyway through inflated rents, secure in the knowledge that every time they put the price up, benefits levels are raised to pay them. This is a racket, exploiting the foolishness of officials in pumping more and more money out and the absence of taxpayer power to rein in this behaviour.
Tim Leunig is right that if rents were fixed as they are now then his hypothetical family would pay£400 a week. But rents aren’t fixed, they are fluid. If you remove a large amount of cash from the system then prices will fall. By arguing for the system to remain as it currently is, rather than accept a cap, this supposed “progressive” is effectively fighting the corner of benefit-farming landlords.
There are knock-on benefits to removing the artificial inflation in rents, too. If renting property out becomes less profitable, the desire and the financial means to buy-to-let will be reduced, helping to address the shortage of affordable housing that is so often highlighted as a problem.
This is why we can expect IDS to be intensely relaxed about this fight gaining so much publicity. When it comes down to it, he has public opinion and solid economics on his side.
How to write a catchy song about the wonders of Eurofederalism
markwallace | 21 Comments » Posted on January 13, 2012Sounds like an impossible task, doesn’t it?
Well how about we take the tune of Breakfast at Tiffany’s by nineties one-hit wonders Deep Blue Something, and recast the lyrics to include such gems as:
Democracy, freedom, subsidiarity
Federalism, the solution we’ve got
How does that sound? Dreadful, actually, but it didn’t stop the Young European Federalists doing the whole song, acting it out and uploading it to Youtube:
This clip has been doing the rounds for some time, but I thought I’d share it as a timely reminder that the true horrors of a Federal EU are far deeper and grimmer than simply bankruptcy, economic stagnation and the abolition of democratic sovereignty.
In case you missed those classic lyrics, or would like to sing along at home, here they are in full:
— VERSE 1 —
They say that we’ve got nothing in common
No cultural ties to build on
The project just can’t work
They say that nationalism will break us
Conservatives will fight us
But trust we really do care— CHORUS —
And we shout what about Europe United?
Peace and safety for all of the people
Democracy, freedom, subsidiarity
Federalism, the solution we’ve got— VERSE 2 —
They say we’ll never work together
To make our union stronger
Let us say no!
We’ll build a Europe bold and new
A democracy that’s true
Europe United as one!— CHORUS —
— VERSE 3 —
We say the EU’s a confusion
Lacking a Constitution
But we know what to do
Reform now, we want to see enlargement
Accept our major statement
Europe united as one!— CHORUS —
— CHORUS —
Ed Miliband struck by the curse of the anti-mojo
markwallace | No Comments » Posted on January 10, 2012The success or failure of political campaigns rests on a lot of different factors. Many of them are solid things – do you raise enough money? Do your team work harder than the other side? Are your ideas coherent?
But there is another factor which is just as important, or potentially even more important. There’s not really a specific word in English for it, so let’s call it mojo.
When you’ve got mojo, you’re unstoppable. Everything you say comes out well, everything you do is well received, and you just seem naturally destined to win. Everything you touch turns to gold. Barack Obama had mojo in the 2008 Presidential election campaign.
Of course there are material things supporting this – the hard work is still being put in, the good team still need to be there and you still need to fundraise – but there’s an element of magic about it as well. Some politicians are touched with it for their whole careers – Tony Blair, for example – some people will get it at a crucial time only for it to vanish later, while others may see it crop up intermittently through their whole lives.
It’s when you have the opposite of mojo that things get really interesting.
I’m not talking about a simple absence of it – the vast majority of politicians are, for the vast majority of their careers, lacking it and instead forced to rely on hard bloody work alone.
I’m talking about when you are in active possession of anti-mojo. When you’ve got the Black Spot. When you’re cursed.
You won’t find politicians who have had anti-mojo for their whole lives. If they did, their careers would never have got off the ground in the first place. Instead, it strikes one day, and can prove impossible to shake off.
These unlucky souls are in real trouble. They can have the money, the team, the elbow grease, even the ideas, but everything they touch goes horribly wrong. Bungles are made. Fate intervenes to destroy the best-laid plans (remember Gordon Brown’s literally car crash poster unveiling?).
If it was a patch of bad luck alone, it might be possible to keep your head down and wait for it to pass. In ordinary life, I suspect this happens to most people at one time or another and they survive. As a political leader that’s almost never possible.
Instead, the problem becomes self-reinforcing. Your misfortune, incompetence and absurdity become a media and social theme. After the first obvious incidents occur, people start looking out for them. You swiftly become the laughing stock of the lobby, and then of the public. When this happens, the prognosis is almost always terminal. Needless to say, this is the political comms person’s nightmare – how do you manage the reputation of someone the Universe appears to have taken a dislike to?
Ed Miliband may well have reached this point in the last week. Never the most naturally comfortable or suave politician, his slow handling of the Diane Abbott furore swiftly developed into an out and out collapse in respect through his “Blackbusters” tweet.
Today, you can see the results. When for whatever reason he kept lobby journalists waiting for over half an hour for his much-trailed (and much rewritten) 6th relaunch speech, they went public and started taking the mick out of him on Twitter. (See here, here, here, here, here and here for examples). Then the BBC accidentally captioned him as “David Miliband”.
It’s not just that he’s a leader in the Twitter age – it’s that his anti-mojo has got so bad that the lobby don’t respect or fear him. When it feels natural to the nation’s political press that they can mock you in public, you’ve got a serious problem. When you lose respect to a degree that even the ordinary politeness any Briton would show to a stranger isn’t accorded to you, then that is incredibly hard to overcome.
It’s safe to say Ed Miliband was not born to be a man touched for all his days by the magic of political mojo, but there was a chance he could have been one of those politicians known for achieving through hard work what had not been gifted to him by sheer pazazz. Instead, he’s become infected by a truly severe case of anti-mojo. 2012 is barely two weeks old, but his leadership is already in serious, serious trouble.
Evening Standard polling on the London Mayoral Race shows clearly that transport fares, and the management of the underground service, is the only major chink in Boris’s armour. It’s a topic which is high on Londoners’ list of concerns and it’s the only area where Ken appears to have a distinct opportunity.
As a result, Ken Livingstone is hammering the issue, promising a 7% cut in fares. But can he be trusted to stick to this pledge for a so-called “fare deal”, or is it pie in the sky?
Judging by his track record, it’s the latter. In fact, he’s broken promises on fares at both of the last two Mayoral elections.
In September 2003, with an election coming up, Ken promised to peg fare rises to “no more than the rate of inflation”. But in September 2004, he announced tube fares would rise at inflation +1% and bus fares would jump by inflation +10%.
In December 2007, with another election approaching, he told the London Assembly “I intend to freeze Tube fares in real terms in 2009″. He lost the election, but by April 2008 leaked emails emerged showing that when he gave that pledge to the Assembly he had already signed off on higher than inflation rises for bus and tube passengers.
It’s understandable why Ken – lagging by 8 points in the polls behind Boris – is making increasingly desperate pledges to persuade voters. The question has always been how he will fund them. Looking at his past behaviour gives us the answer – he won’t have any trouble funding his 7% cut, because he makes a habit of breaking his promises as soon as the election is out of the way.
The undeclared vested interests of leading pro-EU Peers
markwallace | 3 Comments » Posted on December 16, 2011We’ve heard a lot from pro-EU members of the House of Lords in the last week. Here are a few examples:
Lord Brittan: “In order to retain the goodwill which will continue to be needed in future, would my noble friend agree that it will be necessary-if not today, certainly soon-to make it clear that we are not going to try to stop the 26 going ahead by denying them the use of European Union institutions?”
Lord Mandelson: “My Lords, people will differ in their view about whether the Government’s negotiating position last week was tenable or realistic. Will the Government reflect on the utterly shambolic way in which they prepared their position and sought support for their proposals at the summit last week?”
Lord Clinton-Davis: “The Government have not been courageous but desperately cowardly and, most of all, barren of influence. Is that not the case?”
They seem happy to share their enthusiasm for giving up powers to the EU with us. But there’s something else they aren’t so happy about sharing – as ex-Commissioners each of them has to support EU integration or risk losing their generous, taxpayer-funded EU pension. Moreover, they don’t declare this financial interest when they speak in EU debates.
It sounds fanciful, but it’s true. The terms of employment for Commissioners are clear – the obligations of the role include the stipulation that a Commissioner
“shall carry out the duties assigned to him objectively, impartially and in keeping with the duty of loyalty to the [European] Communities“
Importantly, these obligations must be followed
“both during and after their term of office”
The consequences of failing to express loyalty for the rest of their days are also clear, in black and white:
“In the event of any breach of these obligations, the Court of Justice may, on application by the Council or the Commission, rule that the Member concerned be, according to the circumstances, either compulsorily retired in accordance with Article 216 or deprived of his right to a pension or other benefits in its stead.”
That’s a clear conflict of interest. Any Peer or MP must declare their interest if they receive a pension from a company affected by a debate before they speak in it – and most companies don’t require undying loyalty even after retirement.
Bizarrely, though, these EU pensions – which are explicitly conditional on ongoing political support – are not currently declared by the Europhile former Commissioners during EU debates, and the House of Lords’ authorities are apparently happy for that secrecy to continue. Just as bad, the pensions are not declared in the online Register of Lords’ Interests.
How can it be right that a portion of our legislature are campaigning for an organisation which they have a financial vested interest in, and yet are not required to declare it?
So Thom Yorke of Radiohead appeared at Occupy London last night to play a gig in support of their aims.
Whilst most of what Occupy stands for is so vague it’s almost impossible to pin down – even when they try to do so themselves – it is perfectly clear they claim to be for the poorer “99%” and against the rich “1%”. In their world the 1% are responsible for all ills, their wealth should be redistributed and they are fundamentally immoral by simple virtue of their wealth.
But which group does Thom Yorke fall into? With over 30 million record sales worldwide, it’s hard to see how he is part of the 99%…
Or do their principles of class war not apply when it’s someone left wing who’s been raking in the cash?
Unions are set to go on a mass walkout tomorrow in the name of protecting the status quo – a status quo in which public sector workers with better salaries and better pensions are subsidised by prviate sector workers who earn less and get poorer pensions. Tomorrow the nation’s lucky few will be striking and marching for the right to be permanently propped up by struggling masses worse off than them.
Conveniently the RMT, one of Britain’s most extreme defenders of systemic public sector privilege and the voice of well-paid tube drivers everywhere, have a poll on their website, asking:
Should public sector workers take strike action to protect their pension entitlements?
The results already stand at 53% No, 45% Yes, so it’s not looking good for Big Bad Bob Crow. Let’s give it a helping hand – cast your No vote here (it’s on the top right of the RMT site), and help drive the message home.
The poison of taxpayer-funding for political parties
markwallace | 5 Comments » Posted on November 23, 2011Just as politicians’ attempts to get hold of more power will likely never cease, the same is almost certainly true of the attempts of political parties to get their hands on taxpayers’ money.
This week we’ve seen yet another push to give taxpayer funding to political parties – under a system once championed by Chris Huhne where parties with sitting MPs would get a set amount of cash for every vote they win. Let’s call it the “cash for votes” system, a negative name for a negative idea.
This time round, the main parties have publicly distanced themselves from the plan – a welcome sign that at the moment the political class are afraid of public opinion on the cost of politicians to the taxpayer. But we can’t rely on that always being the state of play. Privately, all three parties would love to have a guaranteed income from taxpayers without having to do all that tiresome fundraising – they just can’t get away with saying so in the current climate. We need to be constantly watchful to ensure they never succeed in this private desire.
So let’s look at exactly why taxpayer-funded political parties are such a bad idea.
First off, there’s the ethics of the matter. It’s deceitful to equate a vote for a party with a desire to donate to it. If a vote indicated a happiness to donate, then people would donate. The fact is that they don’t – often because they don’t have money to spare, but also because they may be voting begrudgingly or even tactically. The supposed link underlying the cash-for-votes system simply doesn’t exist.
Why should anyone be forced to fund a political party if they don’t want to – and even one they would never consider supporting? After all, if voter A who is a net beneficiary of the state votes for party A, then their “donation” is subsidised by voter B, a net contributor to the Treasury, who might well be a supporter of their deadly enemies party B.
Just as important are the practical effects on our democracy.
The reason this system is regularly put forward is that the parties struggle to raise money. We should look at why that is the case, rather than simply crudely address the symptom. In truth, our politicians fail to really inspire people – voting, party membership and donation have dropped off, as what used to be called apathy has grown into outright anger and disillusionment.
From the point of view of many, our political class are too self-interested, too out of touch and too close to each other ideologically. Unsurprisingly, that failure on their part has put people off donating to fund them, just as a company giving dreadful service and neglecting its customers will lose business and see turnover and profits decline. Rewarding that failure would be to allow them to escape accountability for their actions and – worse – guaranteed taxpayer-funding would serve to reinforce this disconnect from the public by removing the pressure to inspire people.
At the same time as it would protect the main parties from the consequences of their failure, taxpayer-funding of those parties with MPs would also serve to fossilise British politics in its current, unpopular form. The current big parties would be in a bolstered, protected position, with even more of a headstart than they currently have over insurgents and upstarts. Proponents of taxpayer-funding are effectively saying that the Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties have some form of divine right to exist indefinitely.
In reality, what would be wrong with one or all of them being put out of business if a new, more active and more popular party emerged on their patch of politics? It can happen – the emergence of Labour in the late 19th Century, the strange near-death of the Liberal Party in the inter-war period, the emergence of the SDP in the 1980s, the growth of the SNP and Plaid Cymru and so on.
We should have a system that allows that to happen – both because it’s right that such change should be able to occur and because the possibility of it will keep the current parties on their toes. If anything, we need to make our system of politics more open to new competitors, not less. Bunging taxpayers’ cash to reinforce the status quo would make things even worse than they already are.
Taxpayer-funded striking union sponsors Ice Hockey team
markwallace | 14 Comments » Posted on November 17, 2011
The Trade Unions are large-scale consumers of taxpayers’ money. They eat tens of millions of pounds on the supposed basis that they are strapped for cash and ordinary taxpayers somehow have a responsibility to pay for their political campaigning and fat cat bosses. In 2009/10 their subsidies totalled a remarkable £85.8 million of taxpayers’ money.
But are they really so hard-up that they need the public to be forced to bolster their funding?
The GMB, for one, apparently has plenty of cash going spare. It turns out that they sponsor their own, err, Ice Hockey team – the Nottingham Panthers. Or, to give them their full and official title the GMB Nottingham Panthers.
What public good does it serve for the GMB to splash cash in this way? For that matter, how does it serve their members to dish out sports sponsorhip?
If they can afford to become the name and shirt sponsor for a sports team, then they clearly don’t need so much support from the ordinary taxpayers of this country.
Of course, in return for their subsidy from hard-working taxpayers, the GMB is repaying us by going on strike on 30th November.
Any GMB members unsure to do with this extra day off need not worry, though – they can always go to see their pet team the GMB Nottingham Panthers play away against Cardiff Devils on the same day…