Crash Bang Wallace
Libertarian political blog from Mark Wallace; political opinion, breaking news and exclusivesEd Miliband struck by the curse of the anti-mojo
markwallace | No Comments » Posted on January 10, 2012The success or failure of political campaigns rests on a lot of different factors. Many of them are solid things – do you raise enough money? Do your team work harder than the other side? Are your ideas coherent?
But there is another factor which is just as important, or potentially even more important. There’s not really a specific word in English for it, so let’s call it mojo.
When you’ve got mojo, you’re unstoppable. Everything you say comes out well, everything you do is well received, and you just seem naturally destined to win. Everything you touch turns to gold. Barack Obama had mojo in the 2008 Presidential election campaign.
Of course there are material things supporting this – the hard work is still being put in, the good team still need to be there and you still need to fundraise – but there’s an element of magic about it as well. Some politicians are touched with it for their whole careers – Tony Blair, for example – some people will get it at a crucial time only for it to vanish later, while others may see it crop up intermittently through their whole lives.
It’s when you have the opposite of mojo that things get really interesting.
I’m not talking about a simple absence of it – the vast majority of politicians are, for the vast majority of their careers, lacking it and instead forced to rely on hard bloody work alone.
I’m talking about when you are in active possession of anti-mojo. When you’ve got the Black Spot. When you’re cursed.
You won’t find politicians who have had anti-mojo for their whole lives. If they did, their careers would never have got off the ground in the first place. Instead, it strikes one day, and can prove impossible to shake off.
These unlucky souls are in real trouble. They can have the money, the team, the elbow grease, even the ideas, but everything they touch goes horribly wrong. Bungles are made. Fate intervenes to destroy the best-laid plans (remember Gordon Brown’s literally car crash poster unveiling?).
If it was a patch of bad luck alone, it might be possible to keep your head down and wait for it to pass. In ordinary life, I suspect this happens to most people at one time or another and they survive. As a political leader that’s almost never possible.
Instead, the problem becomes self-reinforcing. Your misfortune, incompetence and absurdity become a media and social theme. After the first obvious incidents occur, people start looking out for them. You swiftly become the laughing stock of the lobby, and then of the public. When this happens, the prognosis is almost always terminal. Needless to say, this is the political comms person’s nightmare – how do you manage the reputation of someone the Universe appears to have taken a dislike to?
Ed Miliband may well have reached this point in the last week. Never the most naturally comfortable or suave politician, his slow handling of the Diane Abbott furore swiftly developed into an out and out collapse in respect through his “Blackbusters” tweet.
Today, you can see the results. When for whatever reason he kept lobby journalists waiting for over half an hour for his much-trailed (and much rewritten) 6th relaunch speech, they went public and started taking the mick out of him on Twitter. (See here, here, here, here, here and here for examples). Then the BBC accidentally captioned him as “David Miliband”.
It’s not just that he’s a leader in the Twitter age – it’s that his anti-mojo has got so bad that the lobby don’t respect or fear him. When it feels natural to the nation’s political press that they can mock you in public, you’ve got a serious problem. When you lose respect to a degree that even the ordinary politeness any Briton would show to a stranger isn’t accorded to you, then that is incredibly hard to overcome.
It’s safe to say Ed Miliband was not born to be a man touched for all his days by the magic of political mojo, but there was a chance he could have been one of those politicians known for achieving through hard work what had not been gifted to him by sheer pazazz. Instead, he’s become infected by a truly severe case of anti-mojo. 2012 is barely two weeks old, but his leadership is already in serious, serious trouble.
Evening Standard polling on the London Mayoral Race shows clearly that transport fares, and the management of the underground service, is the only major chink in Boris’s armour. It’s a topic which is high on Londoners’ list of concerns and it’s the only area where Ken appears to have a distinct opportunity.
As a result, Ken Livingstone is hammering the issue, promising a 7% cut in fares. But can he be trusted to stick to this pledge for a so-called “fare deal”, or is it pie in the sky?
Judging by his track record, it’s the latter. In fact, he’s broken promises on fares at both of the last two Mayoral elections.
In September 2003, with an election coming up, Ken promised to peg fare rises to “no more than the rate of inflation”. But in September 2004, he announced tube fares would rise at inflation +1% and bus fares would jump by inflation +10%.
In December 2007, with another election approaching, he told the London Assembly “I intend to freeze Tube fares in real terms in 2009″. He lost the election, but by April 2008 leaked emails emerged showing that when he gave that pledge to the Assembly he had already signed off on higher than inflation rises for bus and tube passengers.
It’s understandable why Ken – lagging by 8 points in the polls behind Boris – is making increasingly desperate pledges to persuade voters. The question has always been how he will fund them. Looking at his past behaviour gives us the answer – he won’t have any trouble funding his 7% cut, because he makes a habit of breaking his promises as soon as the election is out of the way.
Here’s some good advice for Diane Abbott, embroiled in another race row:
“The Labour Party should never get involved in the politics of racial division.”
Imagine if she’d only listened to that wise comment, and learned its lessons. Which insightful sage said it in the first place?
Err, Diane Abbott did, condemning Phil Woolas on the Guardian website in November 2010…
The undeclared vested interests of leading pro-EU Peers
markwallace | 3 Comments » Posted on December 16, 2011We’ve heard a lot from pro-EU members of the House of Lords in the last week. Here are a few examples:
Lord Brittan: “In order to retain the goodwill which will continue to be needed in future, would my noble friend agree that it will be necessary-if not today, certainly soon-to make it clear that we are not going to try to stop the 26 going ahead by denying them the use of European Union institutions?”
Lord Mandelson: “My Lords, people will differ in their view about whether the Government’s negotiating position last week was tenable or realistic. Will the Government reflect on the utterly shambolic way in which they prepared their position and sought support for their proposals at the summit last week?”
Lord Clinton-Davis: “The Government have not been courageous but desperately cowardly and, most of all, barren of influence. Is that not the case?”
They seem happy to share their enthusiasm for giving up powers to the EU with us. But there’s something else they aren’t so happy about sharing – as ex-Commissioners each of them has to support EU integration or risk losing their generous, taxpayer-funded EU pension. Moreover, they don’t declare this financial interest when they speak in EU debates.
It sounds fanciful, but it’s true. The terms of employment for Commissioners are clear – the obligations of the role include the stipulation that a Commissioner
“shall carry out the duties assigned to him objectively, impartially and in keeping with the duty of loyalty to the [European] Communities“
Importantly, these obligations must be followed
“both during and after their term of office”
The consequences of failing to express loyalty for the rest of their days are also clear, in black and white:
“In the event of any breach of these obligations, the Court of Justice may, on application by the Council or the Commission, rule that the Member concerned be, according to the circumstances, either compulsorily retired in accordance with Article 216 or deprived of his right to a pension or other benefits in its stead.”
That’s a clear conflict of interest. Any Peer or MP must declare their interest if they receive a pension from a company affected by a debate before they speak in it – and most companies don’t require undying loyalty even after retirement.
Bizarrely, though, these EU pensions – which are explicitly conditional on ongoing political support – are not currently declared by the Europhile former Commissioners during EU debates, and the House of Lords’ authorities are apparently happy for that secrecy to continue. Just as bad, the pensions are not declared in the online Register of Lords’ Interests.
How can it be right that a portion of our legislature are campaigning for an organisation which they have a financial vested interest in, and yet are not required to declare it?
The poison of taxpayer-funding for political parties
markwallace | 5 Comments » Posted on November 23, 2011Just as politicians’ attempts to get hold of more power will likely never cease, the same is almost certainly true of the attempts of political parties to get their hands on taxpayers’ money.
This week we’ve seen yet another push to give taxpayer funding to political parties – under a system once championed by Chris Huhne where parties with sitting MPs would get a set amount of cash for every vote they win. Let’s call it the “cash for votes” system, a negative name for a negative idea.
This time round, the main parties have publicly distanced themselves from the plan – a welcome sign that at the moment the political class are afraid of public opinion on the cost of politicians to the taxpayer. But we can’t rely on that always being the state of play. Privately, all three parties would love to have a guaranteed income from taxpayers without having to do all that tiresome fundraising – they just can’t get away with saying so in the current climate. We need to be constantly watchful to ensure they never succeed in this private desire.
So let’s look at exactly why taxpayer-funded political parties are such a bad idea.
First off, there’s the ethics of the matter. It’s deceitful to equate a vote for a party with a desire to donate to it. If a vote indicated a happiness to donate, then people would donate. The fact is that they don’t – often because they don’t have money to spare, but also because they may be voting begrudgingly or even tactically. The supposed link underlying the cash-for-votes system simply doesn’t exist.
Why should anyone be forced to fund a political party if they don’t want to – and even one they would never consider supporting? After all, if voter A who is a net beneficiary of the state votes for party A, then their “donation” is subsidised by voter B, a net contributor to the Treasury, who might well be a supporter of their deadly enemies party B.
Just as important are the practical effects on our democracy.
The reason this system is regularly put forward is that the parties struggle to raise money. We should look at why that is the case, rather than simply crudely address the symptom. In truth, our politicians fail to really inspire people – voting, party membership and donation have dropped off, as what used to be called apathy has grown into outright anger and disillusionment.
From the point of view of many, our political class are too self-interested, too out of touch and too close to each other ideologically. Unsurprisingly, that failure on their part has put people off donating to fund them, just as a company giving dreadful service and neglecting its customers will lose business and see turnover and profits decline. Rewarding that failure would be to allow them to escape accountability for their actions and – worse – guaranteed taxpayer-funding would serve to reinforce this disconnect from the public by removing the pressure to inspire people.
At the same time as it would protect the main parties from the consequences of their failure, taxpayer-funding of those parties with MPs would also serve to fossilise British politics in its current, unpopular form. The current big parties would be in a bolstered, protected position, with even more of a headstart than they currently have over insurgents and upstarts. Proponents of taxpayer-funding are effectively saying that the Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat parties have some form of divine right to exist indefinitely.
In reality, what would be wrong with one or all of them being put out of business if a new, more active and more popular party emerged on their patch of politics? It can happen – the emergence of Labour in the late 19th Century, the strange near-death of the Liberal Party in the inter-war period, the emergence of the SDP in the 1980s, the growth of the SNP and Plaid Cymru and so on.
We should have a system that allows that to happen – both because it’s right that such change should be able to occur and because the possibility of it will keep the current parties on their toes. If anything, we need to make our system of politics more open to new competitors, not less. Bunging taxpayers’ cash to reinforce the status quo would make things even worse than they already are.
Taxpayer-funded striking union sponsors Ice Hockey team
markwallace | 14 Comments » Posted on November 17, 2011
The Trade Unions are large-scale consumers of taxpayers’ money. They eat tens of millions of pounds on the supposed basis that they are strapped for cash and ordinary taxpayers somehow have a responsibility to pay for their political campaigning and fat cat bosses. In 2009/10 their subsidies totalled a remarkable £85.8 million of taxpayers’ money.
But are they really so hard-up that they need the public to be forced to bolster their funding?
The GMB, for one, apparently has plenty of cash going spare. It turns out that they sponsor their own, err, Ice Hockey team – the Nottingham Panthers. Or, to give them their full and official title the GMB Nottingham Panthers.
What public good does it serve for the GMB to splash cash in this way? For that matter, how does it serve their members to dish out sports sponsorhip?
If they can afford to become the name and shirt sponsor for a sports team, then they clearly don’t need so much support from the ordinary taxpayers of this country.
Of course, in return for their subsidy from hard-working taxpayers, the GMB is repaying us by going on strike on 30th November.
Any GMB members unsure to do with this extra day off need not worry, though – they can always go to see their pet team the GMB Nottingham Panthers play away against Cardiff Devils on the same day…
Mandy’s McAvity memory loss on the origins of the Euro crisis
markwallace | 14 Comments » Posted on November 15, 2011Peter Mandelson has been industriously digging himself a hole over the Eurozone crisis. Normally a fervent debater and a nimble performer when it comes to picking his words carefully, he got a bit of a shoeing from Paxo on Newsnight last night.
It can’t have been comfortable for the Prince of Darkness, but there are further troubles ahead if he sticks with the line of attack that he has chosen.
We’re choosing to be outside [the Eurozone] and not showing up at those Councils and bodies where the decision-making and economic discussions of the Eurozone are taking place
The problem he faces on this one is a curmudgeonly, sociopathic Scotsman called Gordon Brown. Back when Brown was Chancellor he was notorious for not bothering to attend the meetings of ECOFIN – the council of EU Finance Ministers. When the group met, McAvity Brown more often than not was nowhere to be seen.
Gordon Brown, Britain’s chancellor of the exchequer, has not been to Brussels for a single meeting this year….Mr Brown has the worst attendance record, going to barely half the meetings since 1999. In 2004 he made it to a little over a third of meetings.
The difference between then and now is that while today’s Government are refusing – rightly – to take part in building a new Euro bailout package, which would be as expensive as it would be unpopular, back then Brown was skipping the very meetings which sowed the seeds of the current Eurozone crisis.
Around that table in the late 90s and the early years of the 21st Century a consensus developed that it was acceptable for the vast majority of Eurozone countries to brazenly breach the Stability and Growth pact, running huge deficits and piling up vast national debt mountains.
Now that is crashing down on all our heads leaving Britain, Europe and even the whole world to pay a heavy economic price.
Brown opted out of those meetings, passing up a chance to warn of the consequences of the Eurozone countries’ actions. Then, of course, Mandelson went on to help him limp on as Prime Minister for three miserable, costly years.
Does the good Lord really want to start this argument?
Ladies and gentlemen, I proudly present the first video venture from CrashBangWallace.com. It explores all the things Ken Livingstone should be – but isn’t – sorry for from his terms as Mayor of London. Ken ne regrette rien…
Appropriately, Ken’s been shooting his mouth off again recently – this time telling LondonlovesBusiness.com that it’s ok that he’s matey with Yusuf al-Qaradawi, the extremist preacher who argues violence against Israel is justified. In fact, is there anything Ken has done that he’s ever said sorry for?
This is a man who drove Londoners’ council tax through the roof, ditched City Hall’s reputation into the gutter and “reached out” to Islamist extremists in an official capacity. Why should anyone give him another chance to do it all again?
Ken Livingstone fans revisit the failed ‘Tory Toffs’ tactic
markwallace | 25 Comments » Posted on October 11, 2011Boris Johnson spoke at a Lambeth & Southwark Conservatives event last night in Lambeth Town Hall, rallying the troops in advance of next year’s GLA and London Mayoral election. In a retro return to the old days, a gaggle of Labour and Trade Union activists picketed the event, heckling guests as they arrived and making a minor nuisance of themselves.
It wasn’t just the sight of lefty pickets at Tory events that was a blast from the past, though – Ken Livingstone’s camp appear to be revisiting the “Tory Toffs” attack strategy that ultimately doomed Labour in the Crewe and Nantwich by-election. The organisers told protesters:
We would ask that formal dress be worn; bring your champagne flutes and martini glasses in the hope someone will provide some drink, and join us in trying to ensure that everyone may eat cake.
For those who don’t recall, this was exactly the approach that Labour took in Crewe and Nantwich in 2008 – Labour supporters turned up dressed in top hats to pursue an explicit class war strategy that they seemed convinced would work. It didn’t – the Conservatives got a 17% swing to take the seat, in part because voters were turned off by the stench of class warfare and the politics of envy. Even the Guardian described the toff attacks as “patronising, old-fashioned and divisive”.
Perhaps we shouldn’t be surprised that people who support Ken Livingstone are quite keen on things that are “patronising, old-fashioned and divisive”, given that you could plausibly put the phrase on Ken’s business card, but it doesn’t bode well for his election prospects. Particularly given that his old ally Lee Jasper was back in the thick of things, too, promoting the event on Twitter.
So here they are in all their glory, the politics-of-envy, class warriors who Ken apparently hopes will hand him the keys to the capital. I suspect the Boris campaign will be hoping they are wheeled out on a regular basis right up to polling day – as Crewe showed us, the more they do this, the more they will deter voters:
Shaun Woodward says cuts are Northern Ireland’s “new troubles”
markwallace | 4 Comments » Posted on September 29, 2011Shaun Woodward is the Shadow Secretary of State for Northern Ireland – a job that requires unusual levels of historical understanding and diplomatic language. Given that, I couldn’t help but wince at his speech to the Labour conference. It started with a flourish of historical references, mentioning the Croke Park Bloody Sunday of 1920. Unfortunately, he then moved on to the economy:
But there are new challenges. New troubles. For the whole island. The crisis faced by the economy of Ireland. Compounded by austerity cuts by the Tory Coalition, felt as harshly in Northern Ireland as any other part of the UK.
The word “troubles” isn’t really the most appropriate for Northern Ireland, given the history of the Troubles with a capital “T”. Shaun Woodward cannot be ignorant of the meaning of the word, so is he just insensitive or is he deliberately joining Guido’s Order of the OTT by comparing the cuts to the Troubles?
