How long before Russia seeks a Cyprus naval base?

Posted on March 18, 2013

The EU’s latest step to “solve” the Eurozone crisis is the pillaging of the savings stored in Cypriot banks. It’s not hard to see the various harmful implications – a collapse of confidence in bank saving in Cyprus itself, a blow to the already miniscule levels of confidence in banking elsewhere in the EU, further reductions in bank capitalisation as savers realise the mattress is the safest place for the cash and so on.

One aspect of the affair that has yet to be widely considered, though, is the opportunities this offers to Russian foreign policy. Russians are the largest group of foreign savers in Cyprus (some legitimately, others less so), and the Russian government has loaned billions to keep the faltering Cypriot state and banking sector afloat.

Now, with Cyprus plunged into a new crisis, Putin’s Kremlin is reportedly “considering” the generous step of extending the existing loans and possibly offering more. The question this raises is simple: what will the Russians want in return for their kind helping hand?

The answer is disturbingly self-evident. Only this morning, the Russian navy announced it was to establish a new, permanent naval presence in the Mediterranean – the first since the post-Soviet retreat of the early 1990s.

At the moment, the Russians have a naval facility in Tartus, a port in Syria. Their shameful solidarity with Bashar al-Assad has been motivated at least in part by the desire to keep a foothold in the Med, but their ally’s position of power is now in doubt. At any time the Syrian regime could fall, and be replaced by a government of rebels who are unlikely to look kindly on hosting a naval base for the chums of the dictator they have just unseated.

So the Russian Mediterranean Naval presence needs a new home. Cyprus seems the natural place – it’s at the Eastern end of the sea, close to allies in Syria and potential enemies in Israel in the event of a conflict with Iran. Most compellingly of all, Cyprus is broke – and evidently ready to do just about anything for cash.

When the Eurozone’s fans say the single currency protects our security, I’m not sure a new Russian naval base on our doorstep was what they had in mind.

Is Berlusconi set to confound the pollsters?

Posted on February 25, 2013

The polls for today’s Italian General Election have been clear for quite some time. Mario Monti, the EU’s pet technocrat, was going to get a welcome kicking in a popular rejection of unaccountable, top-down government from Brussels. Silvio Berlusconi, clambering from the grave like a permatanned Dracula, was going to be roundly beaten in both Houses of Parliament by the Leftist “Common Good” coalition led by Pier Luigi Bersani.

Well, it seems the pollsters shouldn’t have been so certain. Early voter samples by TV station RAI in the key battleground of Lombardy suggest that while Bersani is leading in the Lower House, Berlusconi may be on track to be the biggest political player in the Senate – meaning he will have the power to gridlock the Left’s plans. Cue all sorts of impacts on the stability of the Euro and its so-called recovery…

If RAI’s numbers are correct, and Berlusconi really is going to hold the Left to an effective draw of one house each, what has happened to make the polls so far off?

The UK General Election in 1992 holds some of the answers. The polls predicted a big win for Kinnock and the Labour Party, but on the day the Tories won out (not, arguably, to the long-term benefit of the centre right in Britain, but that’s for another day).

The explanation was simple: people lied to the pollsters.

It turned out that the human element still persists in polling – plenty of voters either wanted the Tories to win or feared the consequences of a Labour victory (or both), but were too embarrassed to tell a stranger from a polling company “I’m voting Conservative.”

The same may have happened in Italy – quite plausibly, given the very public pillorying Berlusconi came in for after his disastrous handling of Italy’s sovereign debt. Bizarrely, that would mean that the Italian equivalent of John Major in 1992 might be Silvio Berlusconi today – not a comparison anyone ever expected to be drawn.

It seems that supporting Silvio, perhaps the world’s most consistently brash political extrovert, has become a very private matter. If his supporters have gone to the ballot box to put him back in the limelight, I doubt he’ll care about how proud or public they might be.

Bunga Bunga…

Video: The EU receives the Nobel “Peace” Prize

Posted on December 11, 2012

When the ludicrous news that the EU had won the Nobel Peace Prize was first announced back in October, I compiled a “Nomination in Pictures” exploring the supposed peace that Brussels has brought to the streets of Portugal, Spain and Greece.

Herman van Rompuy, Martin Schulz and José Manuel Barroso collected the award yesterday in Norway – a country which is outside the EU, and therefore presumably riven with civil war and cross-border aggression. A reader has produced the following video tribute to the most absurd Nobel award to date:

EU Nobel Peace Prize nomination in pictures

Posted on October 12, 2012

When Henry Kissinger won the Nobel Peace Prize, comedy songrwiter Tom Lehrer declared that satire had become obsolete. Today we learn that the Peace Prize has been given to the European Union –  accordingly, satire has now been dragged out of her retirement home and beaten by riot police.

In case you were wondering why the EU could possibly be given the Nobel Peace Prize, here is a short, pictorial summary of the peace Brussels has brought to Greece and Spain in the last 18 months:

Mandy’s McAvity memory loss on the origins of the Euro crisis

Posted on November 15, 2011

Peter Mandelson has been industriously digging himself a hole over the Eurozone crisis. Normally a fervent debater and a nimble performer when it comes to picking his words carefully, he got a bit of a shoeing from Paxo on Newsnight last night.

It can’t have been comfortable for the Prince of Darkness, but there are further troubles ahead if he sticks with the line of attack that he has chosen.

We’re choosing to be outside [the Eurozone] and not showing up at those Councils and bodies where the decision-making and economic discussions of the Eurozone are taking place

The problem he faces on this one is a curmudgeonly, sociopathic Scotsman called Gordon Brown. Back when Brown was Chancellor he was notorious for not bothering to attend the meetings of ECOFIN – the council of EU Finance Ministers. When the group met, McAvity Brown more often than not was nowhere to be seen.

As the FT reported in 2006:

Gordon Brown, Britain’s chancellor of the exchequer, has not been to Brussels for a single meeting this year….Mr Brown has the worst attendance record, going to barely half the meetings since 1999. In 2004 he made it to a little over a third of meetings.

The difference between then and now is that while today’s Government are refusing – rightly – to take part in building a new Euro bailout package, which would be as expensive as it would be unpopular, back then Brown was skipping the very meetings which sowed the seeds of the current Eurozone crisis.

Around that table in the late 90s and the early years of the 21st Century a consensus developed that it was acceptable for the vast majority of Eurozone countries to brazenly breach the Stability and Growth pact, running huge deficits and piling up vast national debt mountains.

Now that is crashing down on all our heads leaving Britain, Europe and even the whole world to pay a heavy economic price.

Brown opted out of those meetings, passing up a chance to warn of the consequences of the Eurozone countries’ actions. Then, of course, Mandelson went on to help him limp on as Prime Minister for three miserable, costly years.

Does the good Lord really want to start this argument?

Only cutting the right head off the Eurozone Hydra will kill this crisis

Posted on November 08, 2011

Appropriately, the key to understanding the EU’s continued failure to solve the Eurozone crisis lies in Greek mythology. The second of the Twelve Labours of Hercules was the slaying of the Learnean Hydra – a many-headed beast that had the nasty and inconvenient habit of growing two new heads every time you cut one off.

This meant that many who tried to slay the Hydra ended up exerting themselves only to make it even more ferocious and threatening. Hercules eventually triumphed because he discovered that one of its heads was mortal – only by cutting off that one could the Hydra be destroyed.

So it is with the Eurozone crisis. Politicians, observers and – most sinfully – the markets are so desperate for all the effort going into each “solution” to be worthwhile that they convince themselves that just cutting off one more head will solve the Euro’s problems.

Time after time, though, they have chosen the wrong head.

First, simply announcing no Eurozone country would go bust or could go bust was meant to do the trick. It didn’t.

Then bailing out Greece from its short term liquidity crisis would solve all of the problems. It didn’t.

After which, Greece’s austerity package being voted through their Parliament would provide a panacea. It didn’t

Then bailing Greece out again was going to put the crisis to bed once and for all. It didn’t.

Then the “bazooka” deal would unite Europe in defeating the fiscal threat. It didn’t.

Last week, only George Papandreou ditching his referendum proposal and resigning would bring the nightmare to an end. It didn’t.

Now, they have seized desperately on the idea that Berlusconi’s resignation will calm the markets and stop the carnage.

It won’t, and it won’t for a very simple reason: Berlusconi is not the problem.

Of course, he isn’t the solution, either – he’s a clownish figure who lacks the authority or the desire to solve Italy’s problems – but any idea that he is the only thing that stands between Italy and fiscal stability is a fantasy as deranged as his self-perception of being God’s gift to women.

The sad thing is that there is such desire to believe that cutting off each of these Hydra’s heads will end the crisis that the markets briefly buoy when each one approaches, only to fall back further when reality intrudes again.

With each false hope and every false promise, the credibility of the next “solution” is reduced, the panic becomes deeper and the cost of borrowing rises. For a stark illustration of this problem, just look at the trouble the EFSF is having raising money from the international markets. As Liberal Conspiracy point out, it is now paying 4 times as much to borrow as it was in June. It isn’t just Greece and Italy that international lenders such as China view as too risky to lend to - it’s the supposed solution mechanism for the crisis.

The underlying problem – the true mortal head of this economic  Hydra – is that membership of the Euro has straightjacketed these economies from defaulting or devaluing to address their sovereign debt problems. But political leaders find this so unpalatable in their world of “ever closer union” that they turn a blind eye to it, and keep lopping off other heads, increasingly bewildered at the sprouting of more and more in their place.

Let me make a prediction (which is a risky business, but hey). If Berlusconi does resign, the markets will briefly rise only to dip swiftly once it becomes clear that weeks of political wrangling or even a General Election will be necessary to even form a new Italian Government, still less implement a viable austerity plan. This will radically increase the cost of Italy’s borrowing even further, leading perhaps to a crisis in other Eurozone banks and further bailouts in Benelux and France and almost certainly to an attempt at direct budget control by the European Commission.

Even Hercules was not strong enough to keep chopping off the wrong heads indefinitely. To find the right head and dispatch this Hydra before being eaten the Eurozone countries need to get on to the real issue quickly, and escape their state of denial.

The EU’s solution seals its painful fate

Posted on October 27, 2011

Apologies for the lack of posts for the last few days – a switch of server combined with a busy week conspired to keep me away from the keyboard.

The biggest news, which cannot be ignored, is the so-called “solution” to the Eurozone crisis. As some have pointed out, it would be surprising if the EU’s leaders were even able to agree on a workable dinner menu for the summit, never mind a unifying solution to the vast economic crisis that they have created through their political foolishness and fiscal blindness.

So claims that they’ve got it all sewn up and everything is going to be fine should raise our suspicions. Lo and behold, as soon as you look at the plan the problems are clear. The BBC’s three-bullet summary of the package is as follows, with my comments in bold:

  • Banks holding Greek debt would accept a 50% loss

Forgive me for pointing it out, but Europe’s banks – and still less the rest of the world’s – are not run by the EU Commission or the premiers of member states. The precedent of politicians enforcing these losses in a laughably named “voluntary” deal is dangerous and will further deter international investors from backing EU ventures.

  • A mechanism to boost the eurozone’s main bailout fund to about 1tn euros (£880bn; $1.4tn)

Where is the money coming from? If as many suggest it will be from sovereign wealth funds from around the world, what financial and political price do we expect Saudi Arabia and China to demand in return for stepping in?

  • Banks must also raise more capital to protect them against losses resulting from any future government defaults

Yes, having enforced 50% losses on the banks who lent to Greece, the EU is now attacking them for not having enough capital. Again, where will the money come from? The Eurozone crisis has severely damaged global confidence in European economies and businesses, and we’re not exactly awash with credit at the moment. If the markets won’t bet their house on the dodgy nag which is the Eurozone, will we see Governments stepping in? If so, err, isn’t it Government indebtedness which is already the problem driving this crisis? 

Just as worryingly, can anyone rely on Italy, Greece and other Eurozone flops to carry out the reforms needed to become competitive and shed their zombie economy status? Sure, they may be pledging to now, but they pledged to when they joined the Euro and signally failed to live up to their promises and treaty pledges.

Most disturbing of all, we are also seeing a trend amongst the EU elites – emphatically separate to the peoples of Europe – towards a “consensus” in favour of fiscal union. The architects of European integration have never been ones to let a good crisis go to waste, so behind their furrowed brows and mutters of concern there can be little down that plenty of them are jumping for joy about the prospect of Brussels siezing power over the budgetary affairs of 17 countries.

If you think the EU is undemocratic and bossy now, you’d be right – but this is a walk in the park compared to what will happen when the EU Budget Inquisition start stretching national Chancellors on the rack until they agree to obey the diktats flowing from Brussels.The protests and chaos in Athens will multiply and spread to other countries once Brussels starts to enforce its measures against the will of voters across Europe with a minimum of accountability.

Of course, the EU’s own accounts are famously full of holes, and fraud and waste are rife, so even if they get this central bullying power we can be certain they will fail to use it responsibly or successfully. There will be pain without any gain – a further recipe for disillusionment and disturbance.

Critics of the EU – including myself – have long said we should dismantle it carefully and responsibly before it tears itself apart painfully. This latest deal puts on the path to yet more economic misery, yet more antidemocratic abuse of power and yet more suffering for ordinary people. In its death throes, I fear the EU will harm a lot of people.