Crash Bang Wallace

Ever since ConservativeHome’s Tim Montgomerie tweeted on Tuesday that a “top source” had informed him that Cameron was planning to get rid of Sayeeda Warsi as Conservative Party Chair, the blue corner in Westminster has been alive with speculation.

First, it’s worth considering the motivation for such a decision. Some think it’s about making a public sacrifice to signify a change after the phone hacking scandal. They’re wrong – Warsi isn’t implicated in the scandal and the last thing Cameron would want to do is imply he’s making her take the fall for an issue that he is himself trying to shake free of.

In reality this is about institutional effectiveness. There has long been a school of thought that she isn’t tough enough in on the ground campaigning, attack dog duties or defence in a crisis. A lot of people hark back to Eric Pickles’ time as Chairman by contrast, when he fought and won by-elections, took chunks out of political opponents and robustly defended against incoming fire.

As you can imagine, most of the speculation in the Westminster Village is about who the new Chairman will be, if Tim’s source is correct. Here are a few of the names being touted, some big names and some perhaps unexpected candidates:

Eric Pickles

In the post of Party Chairman from 2009 to May 2010 Pickles did more than most of his predecessors to make the job his own. His videos from Campaign Headquarters, his well-publicised speeches to activists in key battlegrounds and his by-election record all won him a lot of praise from the Conservative grassroots. Everyone knows he was good at the job so his name is widely tipped for it again. However, his heart has always been in reforming local government and as Communities and Local Government Secretary he has his ideal job. Also, going back to being Chairman having been a senior Cabinet Minister might feel like a step backwards.

Chris Grayling

Having been Shadow Home Secretary in the run-up to the General Election, the general feeling in Westminster is that he was hard-done-by in the Coalition deal, getting a job as a Minister of State in the Department of Work and Pensions rather than a Cabinet job. In the 2005-2010 Parliament he showed considerable and formidable skill as an attack dog, shooting David Blunkett’s ministerial career to pieces, and a compassionate, radical side in his early role in developing new Conservative welfare policies. Negative publicity struck at just the wrong time a few weeks before the election when he was recorded saying that Christian B&B owners should be allowed to refuse to accept gay guests. The Chairmanship would be a definite promotion, and the role requires many of the battle skills he showed in Opposition.

Priti Patel

A perhaps rare example of a popular, successful A-lister, Priti Patel was first elected in 2010. She has impressed the grassroots and Parliamentary colleagues in her first year in the Commons, delivering strong questions in the House and combative, skilful answers on the TV when her Party has needed her. It would be unusual to appoint a Party Chairman who was so recently elected, but she could benefit from the mounting calls for an infusion of new blood and in a Coalition era old-fashioned conventions have gone out of the window. It would also work in her favour that she has strong eurosceptic credentials at a time when the Euro is in crisis and her position on the Right is not in doubt amongs the grassroots or backbenchers. Dare I say it, those who made a PC argument in favour of Sayeeda Warsi’s appointment as a female from an ethnic minority would find Patel easier to accept than a white middle class man, though she herself would be furious if she was to be appointed on that basis.

Michael Fallon

A more old-school choice, Fallon would nonetheless bring a lot to the table as Party Chairman – particularly as he is the current Deputy Chairman. Well-liked, well-read and in touch with the brains as well as the heart of the conservative movement, he originally entered Parliament in 1983. Having lost his seat in 1992 and then won in Sevenoaks in 1997 he also knows the bitter taste of political defeat, which means he understands the importance Party members and leaders place on not revisiting the mess of the mid to late 1990s. In his favour in the current climate is his expertise in economic affairs, having been a member of the Treasury Select Committee for more than a decade. Someone with experience as Deputy Chairman as well as the ability to make the case for the Government’s economic and spending plans could be appealing to a Party that currently feels a bit embattled.

Grant Shapps

A Cameron loyalist, Shapps has carved out a good reputation as a political fighter as well as a fresh face for the Conservative Party. Like Chris Grayling, he is a Minister at the moment rather than a Cabinet Minister – which has the benefit that promoting someone from that level would save Cameron the need to reshuffle the Cabinet. As a Minister in Pickles’ DCLG and an attack dog in his own right, he has plenty of experience in landing punches on Labour and rebutting assaults whether from Paxman or Gordon Brown. He has got his teeth into his Housing brief, and clearly feels strongly about it, but no-one is under any illusion that he sees his career peaking at that level. Significantly, he was one of the few non-Shadow Cabinet members who Cameron invited to Shadow Cabinet meetings when in Opposition.

Pleasingly, this blog’s readership continues to grow – with May 2011 making yet another record-breaking month. Here’s the run-down:

Pageviews: 34,646

Visits: 21,060

Absolute Unique Visitors: 12,564

Top stories:

1) Don’t let Gordon be forgotten or forgiven

2) The knives are out in Cowley Street

3) Exclusive: Phillip Blond’s ResPublica rumoured to be in serious trouble

4) Ken, rape sentences aren’t large enough to salami slice

5) Awkward HS2 moments at the watercooler

The top 5 traffic sources were:

1) Guido Fawkes

2) Google

3) Iain Dale’s Diary

4) Twitter

5) Conservative Home

This is an interesting trend – for the first time Google has lept up the rankings, which is encouraging because more and more people are coming here organically. Twitter remains a strong source, bolstered by the addition of the Twitter button to each post.

The chart since the blog’s launch from last year is an upward line, so thanks to all of you for continuing to come back, read, comment and tweet.